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Renewal odds tracker

Which shows are most likely to be renewed?

Episode Club puts Sterling Point at 60% to be renewed, as of 19 September 2026 — the highest of the 7 shows it currently scores. Man on Fire is second at 50%. 9 shows are tracked in all; the rest are listed below, each with the reason it carries no figure.

These are not community predictions and not a tip from anyone inside a network. Each figure is arithmetic: a weighted average of four public signals — how long the network has stayed silent since the finale, how the season did on a published chart, what critics scored it, and what people involved have said on the record. The weights are printed below and every fact links to where it came from.

How accurate have these predictions been?

How long do Netflix shows actually last on the Top 10?

The ranking

Shows waiting on a renewal decision, ranked by published probability
No.ShowNext seasonRenewal oddsNetworkSources last checked
1Sterling PointSeason 260%Prime Video9 August 2026
2Man on FireSeason 250%Netflix11 August 2026
3Ransom CanyonSeason 347%Netflix11 August 2026
4BeefSeason 344%Netflix11 August 2026
5XO, KittySeason 443%Netflix11 August 2026
6Sweet MagnoliasSeason 642%Netflix11 August 2026
7How to Get to Heaven from BelfastSeason 238%Netflix9 August 2026

Shows we will not put a number on

A percentage only appears once enough of the four signals are actually on record, or once someone has re-checked the sources recently enough. Below either line the honest answer is that we do not know, so these pages carry the facts we have and no figure at all.

What is on this list

This is not a complete renewed-or-cancelled database — TVLine and Metacritic both publish one and theirs are far larger. It is a much smaller thing: scripted shows whose decision is genuinely still open, picked by hand, where enough public evidence exists to compute something honest. Shows are added when their finale has aired and no decision has been announced, and they leave the list when one is. A show being absent means nobody has typed it in yet, not that it is decided.

The track record

No show on this tracker has been decided yet, so there is nothing to score us on. When a decision lands, the percentage this page was showing the day before is recorded here permanently, next to what actually happened — including the times we were badly wrong. It is written down while the number is still live, not reconstructed afterwards.

The method, in full

Opacity is the moat for everyone else in this field; it cannot be ours. Every weight, every curve and every refusal rule is printed below, so a reader can disagree with one specific thing rather than with the vibe of a number.

The four signals and what each is worth
SignalWeightWhy that much
Network silence0.40The heaviest signal, for two reasons: every show has a finale date, so it is never missing, and it is the only one that moves on its own. Silence starts as mild good news — a network that has decided to cancel usually says so quickly, because that frees a slot — and decays from there.
Audience performance0.30The closest public proxy to what the network actually decides on. Not the heaviest, because the chart is censored — a Top 10 hides everything below tenth, and Apple TV+ and HBO publish nothing at all.
On-record statements0.20The only forward-looking signal — everything else describes the past. Held down because the same field has to hold a network president’s answer and an actor saying "we would love to do more", which is what every actor says. Who spoke is weighted separately: an executive counts 1.00, a creator 0.60, trade reporting 0.50, a cast member 0.30. Remarks lose half their force every 120 days.
Critic score0.10Deliberately small — a tiebreaker. Acclaim and renewal correlate weakly in both directions: the list of 90%-rated shows cancelled after one season is long, and the list of critically dismissed procedurals renewed for a decade is longer.

How a raw fact becomes a score

Each signal is turned into a number between 0 and 1 before the weights above are applied. These are the four transformations, in full. They are judgements about shape, not measurements, and they are the part most worth arguing with.

Network silence
score = 0.05 + 0.57 × 2^(−days since finale ÷ median decision days). Starts at 0.62 the day the finale airs and halves its distance to a floor of 0.05 for every median-length wait that passes. The halving is the one piece of arithmetic here with a derivation rather than a judgement behind it: the median is by definition the point at which half of that network’s decisions have landed, so a show still waiting there has fallen out of the faster half — one bit of bad news, one halving.
Audience performance
The mean of whichever of three measures we have. Weeks in the chart: 1 − 2^(−weeks ÷ 3), so 3 weeks scores 0.50, 6 scores 0.75, 12 scores 0.94. Peak rank: 1 − (rank − 1) ÷ 10, so #1 scores 1.00 and #10 scores 0.10. Season-over-season change: 0.5 + change × 1.5, so flat is 0.50 and a one-third collapse reaches 0.00. Measures we do not have are left out of the mean rather than filled in at 0.5.
On-record statements
Each remark scores 0.85 if it points towards another season, 0.50 if it says the question is open, 0.15 if it points against — never 1 or 0, because people are optimistic on the record about shows that then die. Each is weighted by who spoke and halved every 120 days. The weighted average is then pulled towards 0.50 by one unit of doubt — a pseudo-remark of weight 1.0 sitting in every sum — so a single remark moves the score part of the way rather than setting it outright. One network president speaking today carries weight 1.0, so even that moves it only halfway. Once the total weight of a show’s remarks decays below 0.1 — a tenth of that — they stop counting as a signal at all, rather than lingering as a neutral score that no longer says anything.
Critic score
The published score divided by 100, untransformed. Any curve here would be invented, and the weight is 0.10 — the honest move is the cheapest possible mapping, one a reader can check in their head, and to argue about the weight instead.

The rules that stop a number being published

  1. Missing evidence is missing, never neutral

    A signal with no data contributes nothing at all — not weight, not points. If the signals we do have account for less than 0.55 of the total weight, no percentage is published. Scoring an unknown as 0.5 would let a show with one fact on file print a confident-looking figure.

  2. A figure nobody has checked comes down by itself

    Past 45 days without a check, the page says so in the open. Past 90 days the percentage is removed automatically. The failure this guards against is not a stale page — it is a confidently wrong one, still saying 62% for a show that was renewed a week ago.

  3. An announcement is a fact, not a forecast

    Once a decision is public the percentage disappears for good and the page carries the announcement and its source instead. A decided show is never given odds again.

  4. No certainty in either direction

    Modelled figures are held inside 5%–95%. Four public signals cannot justify 0% or 100%.

Who maintains this, and how to correct it

The renewal tracker is built and maintained by Episode Club. Facts are read from their sources by hand; the arithmetic re-runs on every page load, so the figures move daily even when no new fact arrives. There is no editorial board, no expert panel and nobody inside any network — it is a published formula over public facts. Every page prints the date its sources were last opened, and a figure is removed automatically once that date is more than 90 days old.

If a fact here is wrong, or a decision has been announced and this page has not caught up, tell us. We will fix it and record what changed in the changelog below: corrections@episodeclub.com

Method changelog

A percentage is only interpretable next to the method that produced it, so every change to the arithmetic gets a version and a line here. Data corrections are listed too, because a figure can move without the model changing at all — and on this tracker, most of them have.

  1. 9 August 2026

    Version 3 — evidence that has decayed to nothing stops counting

    Remarks lose half their force every 120 days, but a remark still counted as a whole signal no matter how far it had decayed — so an old quote that could no longer move a figure was still enough to let one be published. Nine Perfect Strangers was carried over the evidence floor by a single non-committal line from July 2025 worth about 3% of its original weight. Statements now stop counting once their combined weight falls below a tenth of one network president speaking today. One show left the board: Nine Perfect Strangers is a facts page again, with no percentage.

  2. 9 August 2026

    Audience figures moved to Netflix’s own published data

    Every chart figure had been typed by hand from trade coverage. Checked against Netflix’s official weekly Top 10 dataset for the first time, five of the six Netflix titles were wrong: Man on Fire had 5 weeks on the chart, not 2; Sweet Magnolias’ whole run and XO, Kitty’s peak position were on record as unknown; Ransom Canyon was recorded as #1 in the US when it never went above #2; and BEEF had a chart run we had missed entirely, which had been keeping its page below the evidence floor. Published figures moved by up to 13 points. The figures are now read from the dataset, and the test suite fails if this page and the dataset ever disagree. No change to the algorithm, so the version did not move.

  3. 9 August 2026

    Facts corrected and found away from the chart data

    The same audit re-read every non-chart fact. BEEF’s finale date was ten days wrong — a chart week-ending date had been recorded as a release date. A trade report was dated two days late, because we had stored the day an aggregator repeated it rather than the day the original ran. Critic scores were found for four shows we had recorded as having none, and a dated on-record quote was found for a fifth; between them those moved Sterling Point from 62% to 66% and took Nine Perfect Strangers from no figure at all to 28%. Our estimate of how long Apple TV+ takes to decide was corrected from a rounded 150 days to the 138 its single source case actually measures.

  4. 9 August 2026

    Source citations, publication dates and a correction address

    Sources used to be listed as bare domain names — six identical rows for six different articles. Every fact now carries its source’s headline, the date that source was published and the date we last opened it. Two dead citations were replaced with primary ones, and two dates were corrected after we found we had recorded a republication date rather than the original.

  5. 8 August 2026

    Version 2 — statements are pulled towards neutral

    A single on-record remark used to score at full strength no matter who said it or how old it was, because with one statement the speaker weight and the age decay divided themselves out. A network president speaking yesterday and a cast member speaking two years ago both scored 0.85. Statements are now shrunk towards neutral by a fixed unit of doubt. Two pages moved: How to Get to Heaven from Belfast fell from 49% to 41%, XO, Kitty rose from 32% to 35%.

  6. 8 August 2026

    Version 1 — first published

    Four signals, the weights above, the coverage floor and the two staleness horizons.

Algorithm version 3. The version is printed next to every figure so an old number stays interpretable: bump it and the numbers move, which is exactly why it is written down. A data correction does not bump it — the model did not change — so the changelog above records both kinds.

How this tracker works

Who is making these predictions?

There is no panel of experts, no source inside any network and no straight vote. Each figure starts as a weighted average of four public facts, computed by a published formula, and it moves on its own as time passes. Episode Club members can add their own forecast to a show, and once 3 people have, their average is folded into the published figure alongside the model — which enters as if it were 20 forecasts, so a small group cannot swing a number. Each show’s page prints the split between the two. A separate members-only percentage is a different thing and only appears once 30 different people have forecast on that question; below that it would be one loud opinion with a percentage sign on it.

How is each probability calculated?

Four signals, each scored between 0 and 1 and combined by the fixed weights in the table below. Signals we have no data for are left out entirely rather than treated as neutral, and the remaining weights are rescaled over what is actually there — which is why a show with two signals can still carry a figure, and why that figure leans harder on the ones it has.

Why do some shows have no percentage?

Two different reasons, and the pages say which. Either too little of the evidence is on record — below 0.55 of the total weight, no number is published — or nobody has re-checked the sources in over 90 days, at which point the figure is removed automatically. A missing percentage is never a low percentage.

How often does this change?

The facts are re-checked by hand, and each page prints the date it was last done. The figures themselves move every day without anyone touching them, because a network staying silent for another week is itself evidence and the model reads it that way.

Where do the numbers come from?

Trade press, the networks’ own announcements, published viewing charts and critic aggregates. Every fact on every page is linked to the page it was read from, and anything that could not be verified is left out rather than estimated.

Sources

Every page a fact above was read from, with its own headline, the day it was published and the day we last opened it. Figures — dates, ranks, counts, scores — are restated here with attribution. Nothing is reproduced at length from any of them.

Episode Club is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Netflix, Apple TV+, Rotten Tomatoes or any other company named on this page. Those names appear only to say whose show it is and where a figure came from.

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